Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
